Legislature(2007 - 2008)SENATE FINANCE 532

11/07/2007 01:00 PM Senate FINANCE


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01:30:04 PM Start
01:31:22 PM HB2001
03:48:57 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
-- NOTE CHANGE IN AGENDA --
+= SB2001 OIL & GAS TAX AMENDMENTS TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
Dept. of Revenue Production Forecast
Update -- Dudley Platt, DOR Consultant
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
Discussion PPT Credits - Administration's
Oil and Gas Team
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
SB 2001   "An Act relating  to the production  tax on oil  and gas                                                              
          and to conservation  surcharges on oil; relating  to the                                                              
          issuance  of advisory  bulletins and  the disclosure  of                                                              
          certain information  relating to the production  tax and                                                              
          the  sharing  between agencies  of  certain  information                                                              
          relating  to the production  tax and  to oil and  gas or                                                              
          gas  only leases;  amending the  State Personnel  Act to                                                              
          place in  the exempt service  certain state oil  and gas                                                              
          auditors and  their immediate supervisors;  establishing                                                              
          an oil and  gas tax credit fund and  authorizing payment                                                              
          from  that fund; providing  for retroactive  application                                                              
          of   certain   statutory   and   regulatory   provisions                                                              
          relating  to  the production  tax  on  oil and  gas  and                                                              
          conservation   surcharges  on  oil;   making  conforming                                                              
          amendments; and providing for an effective date."                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
          SB 2001 was HEARD & HELD in Committee for further                                                                     
          consideration.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO. 2001                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     "An Act  relating to the  production tax  on oil and  gas and                                                              
     to conservation  surcharges on oil; relating to  the issuance                                                              
     of  advisory   bulletins  and   the  disclosure   of  certain                                                              
     information  relating to the  production tax and  the sharing                                                              
     between  agencies  of  certain information  relating  to  the                                                              
     production  tax  and  to oil  and  gas  or gas  only  leases;                                                              
     amending  the State  Personnel  Act to  place  in the  exempt                                                              
     service  certain  state  oil   and  gas  auditors  and  their                                                              
     immediate  supervisors;  establishing  an  oil  and  gas  tax                                                              
     credit  fund   and  authorizing   payment  from   that  fund;                                                              
     providing  for retroactive application  of certain  statutory                                                              
     and regulatory  provisions relating to the production  tax on                                                              
     oil  and  gas  and conservation  surcharges  on  oil;  making                                                              
     conforming  amendments;   and  providing  for   an  effective                                                              
     date."                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
1:31:22 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
DUDLEY  PLATT, CONSULTANT,  DEPARTMENT  OF  REVENUE, informed  the                                                              
committee  of  his experience  as  a  petroleum engineer  and  his                                                              
current position  as a  consultant to Department  of Revenue.   He                                                              
outlined his experience as a forecaster.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
1:33:57 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  gave a presentation  titled, "North  Slope Crude  Oil &                                                              
Natural  Gas Liquids  Production Forecast,  Department of  Revenue                                                              
Fall 2007"  [copy on  file].   He explained  to the committee  the                                                              
things that he does not forecast and provided a list.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Resources not included in fall 2007 Forecast:                                                                                 
   · No undiscovered resources.                                                                                                 
   · 100% Ugnu viscous oil (20 billion barrels)                                                                                 
   · 96% of West Sak viscous oil                                                                                                
   · 88% of Schrader viscous oil                                                                                                
   · Federal   Outer   Continental    Shelf   (Sivillug,   Kuvlum,                                                              
     Sandpiper)                                                                                                                 
   · NPR-A (except known pools near Alpine)                                                                                     
   · Slope wide implementation of low salinity water flood                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Some addendums to the list include:                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Resources that have been discovered but due to the sensitivity                                                                  
of the information are not available for discussion.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
   Æ’Some forecasts (420 million barrels) from West Sak core                                                                    
     area.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
   Æ’He noted the importance of considering that he does not                                                                    
     forecast any known discoveries in the Federal Outer                                                                        
     Continental Shelf (OCS).  The list includes those slated                                                                   
     for non commercial.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
   Æ’He does forecast some known pools near Alpine such as                                                                      
     Spark, Rendezvous, and Moosestooth.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
He  commented on  the  new technology  barrels  from low  salinity                                                              
water  flood.   He  went  on to  say  that  currently there  is  a                                                              
demonstration  project at  Endicott that  could prove  to be  very                                                              
viable.  The new  technology would  allow for  20-30% recovery  of                                                              
oil remaining in fields.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
1:36:21 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt addressed page 3, Methodology:                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
   · Production forecast is a "bottoms up" approach                                                                             
   · Forecast 3 types of production                                                                                             
             - Currently producing                                                                                              
             - Under development                                                                                                
             - Under evaluation                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
   · Combines the following:                                                                                                    
          -Decline curve analysis                                                                                               
          -Engineering principles                                                                                               
          -Site inspections                                                                                                     
          -Discussions with operators                                                                                           
          -Use of private & public information                                                                                  
   · Operators are given an informal opportunity to review and                                                                  
     comment on forecast assumptions                                                                                            
   · Continually review forecast assumptions and update daily                                                                   
     production volumes.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt stated  that each field behaves differently  noting that                                                              
each  has different  size, complexity  and drive  mechanisms.   He                                                              
underlined  the importance  of  looking at  each  field every  six                                                              
months to really understand it.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                              
1:37:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He  extrapolated  definitions  from   the  Department  of  Revenue                                                              
Spring Forecast 2007.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Currently   producing:  baseline   production;   and  presumes   a                                                            
continued  level  of  expenditures  sufficient  to  promote  safe,                                                              
environmentally  sound   operations.  He  added   that  "currently                                                              
producing"  presumes  continued injection  of  water  and gas  for                                                              
pressure support.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Under  development:    based  on  new  projects  either  currently                                                            
funded or  awaiting project sanctioning  in the very  near future.                                                              
(Read from  Department of Revenue  Spring 2007 Forecast  page 35).                                                              
He sited  examples: development  drilling, enhanced oil  recovery,                                                              
either  operating or  projected  to be  operating.   The  category                                                              
also  includes roughly  180  million  more barrels  attributed  to                                                              
injecting water into Prudhoe Bay gas cap.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Under   evaluation:     includes   technically   viable   projects                                                            
currently  in the  "pencil  sharpening" stage  where  engineering,                                                              
cost, risk,  and reward  are all being  actively evaluated.   This                                                              
includes  certain  enhanced  oil   recovery  projects  at  certain                                                              
satellite   fields.     Includes   certain   expanded  heavy   oil                                                              
development at Trador and Westsak.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
He  explained that  these are  the  three types  of production  he                                                              
forecasted. He pointed  to page 4 of the handout  illustrating the                                                              
amount of production over ten years for each type.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  explained that the  curve upward  on the chart  in 2018                                                              
for "under  evaluation" is the  projected time for  Point Thompson                                                              
to come online.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  noted the legislature  has struggled  with Point                                                              
Thompson for the  past decade. He asked if the  project just keeps                                                              
getting pushed forward.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
1:40:59 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt  responded  by  saying  that  Point  Thomson  is  "very                                                              
elusive".   He pointed  out that 2-3  years ago with  negotiations                                                              
on  the gas  pipeline,  Point Thompson  went  from  a gas  cycling                                                              
project to  a project  that would only  be commercial  under major                                                              
gas  sales.    He  explained  that it  is  a  very  high  pressure                                                              
reservoir  with   significant  costs  associated  with   it.    He                                                              
explained that even  if a gas contract was  available immediately,                                                              
it would  still be  nine years  before production,  hence the  10-                                                              
year  projection  chart.    He emphasized  the  magnitude  of  oil                                                              
available and  the amount of effort  it would take to  capture it.                                                              
He  explained that  he uses  the decline  curve analysis  approach                                                              
using   industry   accepted   software,   augmented   with   basic                                                              
engineering principles.   He then inspects all the  oil fields and                                                              
has  detailed discussions  with the  operators.   In addition,  he                                                              
attends meeting  on field  development with  oil companies.   When                                                              
the  forecasting effort  is completed,  plant  managers are  given                                                              
the opportunity to comment on the findings.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
1:45:17 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt continued with page 5, titled, Alaska North Slope:                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
The  chart   denotes  both   the  spring   and  fall   projections                                                              
expressing a  steady decline  in production, ultimately  resulting                                                              
in  a negative  500,000  barrels per  day.   He  suggested that  6                                                              
months  from  now  the  lines  would   likely  change  to  express                                                              
something different.   He elaborated  noting the  discrepancies in                                                              
the  projections from  2008-2013.   He explained  that when  there                                                              
are  mistakes or  differences in  the projections  he attempts  to                                                              
reconcile  the  difference,  or   at  least  understand  it.    He                                                              
reiterated the process  in which he collects data.   He identified                                                              
3 main reasons  for the discrepancies in the forecast  between the                                                              
spring and fall forecasts:                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     1) Additional information was made available that suggested                                                                
     the timing of new developments had changed.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     2) Planned maintenance: He noted that 2006 was identified                                                                  
     as year of integrity management highlighted by the                                                                         
     shutdown. The calendar year 2007 was the year of                                                                           
     infrastructure renewal, life cycle and replacement costs.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt maintained  that  even healthy,  producible  reservoirs                                                              
can  have  many   things  that  prevent  it  from   performing  to                                                              
expectations of both the forecaster as well as the operator.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He pointed  out that the difference  in the chart from  page 5 and                                                              
that of page 6  is the removal of the federal  oil variable (NPR-A                                                              
and  Liberty).    He  maintained  that  without  the  federal  oil                                                              
variable  the  forecast  is  more  accurate.  The  fact  that  the                                                              
federal lands  do not bring great  return in terms of  tax revenue                                                              
and are difficult  to produce, their significance is  not as great                                                              
in   terms   of   forecasting  production   {for   the   sake   of                                                              
understanding return in revenue to the state}.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
1:50:27 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asserted that  projections  tend  to be  overly                                                              
optimistic  on production and  pessimistic on  price. He  asked if                                                              
the North  Slope basin  is in  a time  of its  life cycle that  is                                                              
difficult to forecast.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
1:51:20 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
In response, Mr.  Platt suggested that the state  is transitioning                                                              
into  a time  of greater  challenges in  forecasting price,  cost,                                                              
and production.   He observed that prior to the era  (6 years ago)                                                              
of  infrastructure  renewal  and integrity  management,  he  could                                                              
forecast fairly accurately.   He revealed that with  the amount of                                                              
uncertainty   associated   with  the   near   term  of   continued                                                              
reinvestment, not  necessarily in barrels produced,  but to repair                                                              
facilities  to maintain  current  production, forecasting  becomes                                                              
more difficult.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
1:53:02 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  if  he  understood  correctly  that  the                                                              
reservoirs are  capable of production  at 700,000 barrels  per day                                                              
with proper  reinvestment.   Mr. Platt  responded that  everything                                                              
at  Prudhoe, Kuparik,  and  Alpine are  producing.   He  clarified                                                              
that the  issue is  not the ability  to produce,  but what  may go                                                              
wrong to slow it down.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
1:54:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman   offered  that  regardless  of   the  incentive                                                              
credits,  producers have  the ability  to  maintain production  at                                                              
700,000  barrels per  day versus  what is reflected  on the  chart                                                              
illustrating 600,000.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt  responded   that  the  600,000  reflects   the  amount                                                              
produced without the inclusion of federal oil.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
He  continued his  presentation  with  page 8,  Production  Volume                                                              
Forecast Reduced for the Next 8 Years                                                                                         
   · Additional volume Reductions from:                                                                                       
     -unplanned interruptions                                                                                                   
     -planned infrastructure renewal                                                                                            
   · Slowed the pace of heavy oil                                                                                             
   · Delayed timing of new projects to reflect revised industry                                                               
     estimates                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
1:56:43 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt explained  what  is meant  by "slowed  the  pace".   He                                                              
stated  that reports  from  the industry  suggest  that there  are                                                              
plenty of  capital funds  available but  they are not  necessarily                                                              
put towards enhancement projects.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
He provided examples:  Milne point is challenged  because there is                                                              
near term  rate reduction.   This information was  accommodated in                                                              
the projection.   He  noted Westsak  has great opportunities,  but                                                              
recently  suffered  from some  reservoir  issues.   He  noted  the                                                              
technical issues  impacting the  pace of  development are  not the                                                              
only concern.   He  further clarified  by saying  that a  producer                                                              
may want to proceed  with a project, but they may  not receive the                                                              
support from  co-owners.  This  is something happening  at Westsak                                                              
presently.   How that  is accommodated  in the  projections  is he                                                              
stretched out the  development overtime and represents  a delay of                                                              
10-15 thousand barrels of oil a day.                                                                                            
1:59:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He  also  added  that  "delayed  timing"  of  new  projects  as  a                                                              
variable  to reflect  new  information regarding  maintenance  and                                                              
integrity management.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Elton  stated  an assumption  on  planned  infrastructure                                                              
renewal.    He  asked  if  the  increased  estimation  of  planned                                                              
infrastructure  renewal  projects are  due to  problems  occurring                                                              
from deferred maintenance.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:00:26 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  agreed with Senator  Elton's assumption but  added that                                                              
any  prudent operator  would  look at  all  infrastructures.   The                                                              
integrity  management plan  leads  to an  infrastructural  renewal                                                              
plan and the implementation of the plan will take years.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt explained  that  his  discussions with  field  managers                                                              
revealed  that in  Prudhoe  Bay alone  there  are  1,100 miles  of                                                              
pipeline and flow  lines.  At Milne Point over the  next 3-5 years                                                              
certain  flow  lines will  need  to  be  replaced at  a  regularly                                                              
scheduled  pace.     This  project   will  slow   production,  but                                                              
ultimately extend the life of oil production.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Elton  asked about  delayed  timing  of new  projects  to                                                              
reflect   revised  industry   estimates.      He  emphasized   the                                                              
expectation  in PPT deliberations  was based  on the premise  that                                                              
if a net  tax was adopted  the pace of investment  would increase.                                                              
He expressed confusion over the delayed timing of new projects.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt  distinguished  between Senator  Elton's  concerns  and                                                              
what is meant by  delayed timing of new projects.   He pointed out                                                              
that when  companies assess  future projects,  there are  a number                                                              
steps  in the process.   Often  one or  two wells  are drilled  to                                                              
determine   what,  how   much,   and  under   what   circumstances                                                              
production can  occur.  A producer's  plans can be revised  at any                                                              
step  in  the  process  and  potentially  "delay  timing"  of  the                                                              
project.   He  emphasized the  delay of  a project  does not  mean                                                              
abandonment of a project.  He provided examples of new projects.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
 {Liberty BP  thought they  would develop as  a stand  alone (more                                                              
expensive) facility  - one to two  drills a year to  determine the                                                              
success rather than  a rapid rise to a peak  (delayed production).                                                              
Further  evaluation revealed  there  was surplus  capacity at  the                                                              
Endicott facilities  where extended  reach drilling could  capture                                                              
that.  He  also delayed 6 months  because due to BP  submission to                                                              
the  Mineral  Management service  that  stated  the 6  month  time                                                              
period.}////////                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:05:06 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Currently  there  is drilling  for  heavy  oil  in Ugurik  with  a                                                              
facility   sharing  agreement   pending   with  Conoco   Phillips.                                                              
Initially,  first oil  was  projected in  the  fourth quarter  for                                                              
2007.   When  that did  not happen,  forecasts  were adjusted.  He                                                              
supplied further  examples of the difference  between expectations                                                              
and the  actualization of the expectation.   He could  not comment                                                              
on what type of behavior PPT might encourage or discourage.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:08:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  addressed page 8 of  the handout and explained  that he                                                              
wanted  to express  some  of what  led to  the  judgments made  in                                                              
forecasting.  The  plot represents the fluctuations  in production                                                              
for 2005 and  2007, January 1 -  November 6.  He explained  that a                                                              
single dip in the  chart represents maintenance.  A  double dip or                                                              
dips close  together represent an  unanticipated event.  The chart                                                              
illustrates significant volatility in 2005.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:09:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Platt  expressed   the  difficulties   in  making   forecast                                                              
projections by explaining  Page 10, Volume Volatility.   The chart                                                              
denotes barrels per  day produced from September  2006 - September                                                              
2007.   The dips in  the chart represent  a TAPS shutdown  in 2006                                                              
slow output  due to tanker traffic  delay of North  Slope delivery                                                              
in  November  2006,  and planned  maintenance  at  Alpine,  August                                                              
2007.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:11:07 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He addressed  the final  page: Changes  from spring  2007 in  bpd.                                                              
One  column represents  barrels  produced per  (bpd)  day on  both                                                              
state  and  federal lands;  the  other  represents bpd  for  state                                                              
lands  only.   The chart  spans from  Fiscal Year  2008 to  Fiscal                                                              
year 2015.  He  elaborated noting the decrease  in production over                                                              
the next 5 years  and the shift to a production  increase in 2014.                                                              
In referencing  FY 2008, he  said it is  quite possible  the state                                                              
would fare better than what is expressed in the chart.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Huggins addressed  page 8  and said  the assumptions  for                                                              
2007 were not surprising.  He asked Mr. Platt if  he was surprised                                                              
by what the chart illustrated.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
2:13:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  responded that he was  surprised at the number  of dips                                                              
in  the colder  months, noting  that  generally companies  perform                                                              
maintenance projects in the warmer months.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator Huggins  asked if  there were  other elements,  other than                                                              
water, that  are expected to  come into  play with regards  to the                                                              
extraction of heavy oil.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  explained that  old oil fields  produce more  water per                                                              
unit of oil and  they produce more gas. The facilities  in Prudhoe                                                              
Bay and  Kaparak are  maxed out on  how much  gas can be  handled.                                                              
These fields  are also approaching  the maximum of water  they can                                                              
handle.    He  explained  that if  companies  don't  expand  their                                                              
ability to  handle these  non-sellable items,  the oil  production                                                              
will continue to go down.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
He asked for clarification from Senator Huggins on the question.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:15:35 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Huggins  asked if  there were any  other variables  on the                                                              
horizon that may impact heavy oil extraction and production.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt elaborated  on the issues  of heavy oil.  He  noted that                                                              
production costs  are higher,  but the value  is lower due  to the                                                              
quality.  He  discussed  the various  technologies  available  for                                                              
creating higher quality heavy oil.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Senator Huggins  asked Mr.  Platt to  discuss the possibility  for                                                              
gas  off-take  with   regards  to  the  possibilities   of  a  gas                                                              
pipeline.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:17:04 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt  said in  Prudhoe  Bay  there are  approximately  25-40                                                              
trillion  cubic feet  (tcf)  of gas;  Point  Thompson  as has  4-8                                                              
trillion cubic feet  of gas.  The amount of gas  in Point Thompson                                                              
could   provide  4.5   billion  cubic   feet  (bcf)   a  day   for                                                              
approximately  six years without  having to tap  Prudhoe Bay.   He                                                              
pondered the  choices of investment  in reinjection,  or producing                                                              
fuel from  Point Thompson to send  to Prudhoe Bay  for operations.                                                              
He noted  gas reserves in  NPR-A, the trillion  feet of  cubic gas                                                              
in the  vicinity of  Alpine. He also  informed the committee  that                                                              
Kuparuk will need to start buying gas just to run operations.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas  said he  understood the  term "low salinity  water                                                              
flood" and asked for the source of the low salinity water.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:19:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt understood  that  British  Petroleum (BP)  is  trucking                                                              
fresh water  to Endicott Island.  This is a demonstration  project                                                              
and is  following successful laboratory  test. He said that  it is                                                              
possible  that  companies  will   be  able  to  build  desalinator                                                              
plants.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:20:27 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas referenced  the  chart illustrating  Alaska  North                                                              
Slope  oil production,  page  6.   He  asked if  the  dip in  2017                                                              
represents a particular event.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  said it represented  Point Thompson and  its associated                                                              
satellite.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas  reference page  8 and asked  Mr. Platt  to explain                                                              
"slowed development" and "delayed development".                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:21:20 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt   named  two  areas   he  used  when   considering  the                                                              
production  forecast: Schrader  Bluff at Milne  point and  Westak.                                                              
He  noted  the  first  area  has   funds  budgeted  for  integrity                                                              
management,  not production.    The challenge  at  Westsak is  the                                                              
extraction  of heavy oil.   This  requires not  only funds,  but a                                                              
willingness by the company to pursue the project.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas  referenced the volatility  chart on page 9  of the                                                              
handout.   He asked Mr. Platt  how he determines what  is factored                                                              
into the chart.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:22:47 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  provided some  perspective.  When  production was  at 1                                                              
million barrels per  day, 5 events per winter season  was the norm                                                              
for  factoring.   He explained  that  at 750,000  barrels per  day                                                              
there  is  generally  less  incident, hence  a  lesser  number  of                                                              
incidents factored  in.    He further  explained that in  order to                                                              
track  accuracy,   he  reviews  the   previous  3  years.   If  an                                                              
influential  factor was  not foreseen  and there  is a  relatively                                                              
constant  trend, the forecast  is adjusted  accordingly. He  noted                                                              
that  in years  past he  felt his  forecast  were proactive  where                                                              
more  recently  the forecast  has  been  more  reactive due  to  a                                                              
number  of changing  variables, specifically  the maintenance  and                                                              
integrity management.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:24:16 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman  questioned  how  much  the price  of  oil,  tax                                                              
structure  and particular  incentives factor  into the  production                                                              
forecast equation.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt responded  that his  forecast is  based on  technically                                                              
recoverable  barrels,   compared  to  what  is   reported  by  the                                                              
industry  as recoverable.  The variables  in the  equation are  as                                                              
follows:  new information  from economic research  section  of DOR                                                              
including price,  feeder pipeline  tariff, and TAPPS  tariff. From                                                              
these a  model is built on  indicative economics:   Forecasts from                                                              
DOR, plus  information from Cambridge  energy of  operating costs.                                                              
For the  fields that  have a  negative economic  life, a  4% gross                                                              
minimum is applied.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:25:54 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman asked,  what is  used to  determine barrels  per                                                              
year increase, when establishing assumptions.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:26:35 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt answered  that the total amount of  recoverable reserves                                                              
has either stayed  the same or increased every year  for 10 years.                                                              
He underlined  that he can not  estimate the level  of investment.                                                              
He maintained  that if a company  knows they can get  13.8 billion                                                              
barrels out of Prudhoe  Bay they will do whatever  it takes to get                                                              
the barrels out of the ground.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman asked  if the model  could track  the impact  of                                                              
PPT credits and incentives.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:27:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt offered  that initial funds go towards,  infrastructural                                                              
renewal   in  order  to   maintain  base   production.  There   is                                                              
significant incremental  production only after the  companies have                                                              
a comfort  level that they can  produce what they  have projected.                                                              
He reminded  the committee  that there are  some new  projects and                                                              
provided examples.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:28:27 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt said  he would like to  see Westsak develop 4  or 5 more                                                              
drill sites.   The companies  consider the flow  station integrity                                                              
first.   He purported  that companies are  spending now  to ensure                                                              
there is not another major incident that impedes production.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Elton asserted  that  throughout the  tax  debate he  had                                                              
never heard  that net profit tax,  with credits, was  intended for                                                              
infrastructure  renewal.  He  further   underlined  that  the  net                                                              
profits  tax and credits  are needed  for companies  to invest  in                                                              
new production.  The message  gleaned from the  chart is  that the                                                              
state should  not count  on new production  but on  infrastructure                                                              
renewal.   He emphasized that the  message is a  significant shift                                                              
from what had been discussed.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Platt acknowledged  the challenge.  He  noted that  companies                                                              
would  feel more  comfortable  producing  if the  equipment  could                                                              
sustain it.  He reiterated that  there currently are  new projects                                                              
underway and provided examples.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:31:14 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Elton  asked if Mr.  Platt's assumptions are  correct, why                                                              
credits  are given  to companies  that  could have  spent less  on                                                              
integrity  management   if  it  weren't   a  matter   of  deferred                                                              
maintenance.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:32:35 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt  elaborated that every year  for the past 5  years there                                                              
has  been  more  production  made   in  heavy  oil  which  can  be                                                              
quantified.   He acknowledged the  pace is slower  than originally                                                              
assumed,  but there  is more heavy  oil produced.   He  emphasized                                                              
the point  that new  projects are still  relying on old  equipment                                                              
to be  commercial.  He  underlined that  even though there  is oil                                                              
available  to produce;  facilities have  to be  in a condition  to                                                              
make the project viable.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked Mr. Platt  how many barrels per  day would                                                              
be produced for rest of FY 2008.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:34:12 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Platt said his projection is 732,000 bpd.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
AT EASE:       2:34:55 PM                                                                                                     
RECONVENE:     2:47:17 PM                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:48:50 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
JON IVERSON, DIRECTOR, DIVISION OF TAX, DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE,                                                                  
provided an  overview of tax credits  available under PPT  and how                                                              
they  are  affected  under  ACES.    He  reiterated  the  PPT  Tax                                                              
calculation  presented by  Steve  Porter, Legislative  Consultant,                                                              
Legislative  Budget  and  Audit   Committee,  Legislative  Affairs                                                              
Agency   handout:   Gross  value   minus   transportation   costs;                                                              
allowable deductions,  lease expenditures are subtracted  from the                                                              
gross value  to reach the  production tax  value.  That,  in turn,                                                              
is multiplied by  the rate of 25 percent under ACES  (PPT the rate                                                              
is 22.5  percent).   From that  point the  credits are  subtracted                                                              
out.    There  are three  main  statutory  sections  that  address                                                              
credits:  qualified capital  expenditure credit  (QCE) in  section                                                              
AS 43.55.023,  nontransferable credits, AS 43.55.024,  exploration                                                              
incentive  credits,   AS  43.55.025,  (in  effect   prior  to  the                                                              
enactment of PPT).                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:51:12 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
The  qualified  capital  expenditure   credits  in  AS  43.55.023,                                                              
Section  (a) are  20 percent  of  qualified capital  expenditures.                                                              
He explained  these are expenditures  that have not been  used for                                                              
credits under other sections.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:51:57 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
In AS 43.55.023  (b) are the loss carry-forward  (or net operating                                                              
loss  credits).     These   are  based   on  prior  years'   lease                                                              
expenditures;  20   percent  of  the  amount  of   adjusted  lease                                                              
expenditures.   These  are expenditures  that  are not  deductable                                                              
for the  previous calendar  year because the  tax would  have been                                                              
less  than  zero.    To the  extent  the  taxpayer  has  remaining                                                              
credits they  can take 20 percent  and convert into a  loss carry-                                                              
forward to be used against subsequent year's tax liability.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:53:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Both   types   of  credits   are   transferable   through   credit                                                              
certificates  that are  issued by  DOR.  Under  current rules  the                                                              
department must  grant or  deny the application  no later  than 60                                                              
days after  the following:   March  31 of  the year following  the                                                              
year the expense  was incurred, the date the statement  was filed,                                                              
or the date the  application was received by the  department.  The                                                              
CS SB2001(JUD)  would change 60  to 120 days, allowing  additional                                                              
time to exam the credit applications.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson continued  to explain AS 43.55.023 (e)  sets forth the                                                              
authority  for an  owner of  a transferable  credit  to apply  the                                                              
credit against  their tax  liability. Once  a transferable  credit                                                              
is issued  by the department, it  could be resold and,  in certain                                                              
circumstances  could be  refunded under  PPT. He  said there  have                                                              
been questions put  forth regarding the marketing  of the credits.                                                              
In  answer to  that  he explained  that  the department  does  not                                                              
receive information  on every  credit transferred.  The terms  are                                                              
confidential   between  the   buyer  and   the  seller,  and   the                                                              
department is  not privy to  that information.   He said  based on                                                              
information that  is available, the  credits are worth  between 90                                                              
and 100 percent of market value.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:55:17 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Elton  asked  why  someone  would buy  a  credit  at  100                                                              
percent.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson was  uncertain  and  said there  must  be some  other                                                              
reason than  market value. He  added that with transaction  costs,                                                              
it would not make sense to purchase a credit at 100 percent.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Olson  asked if  a  net  operating  loss converted  to  a                                                              
credit, could be sold.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  said yes and elaborated.   Once a net  operating loss                                                              
credit  is  received  it  can be  converted  into  a  transferable                                                              
credit certificate that can then be sold.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:56:28 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson continued  with an  explanation  of AS  43.55.023(f).                                                              
This section addresses  refunds of credits for  small producers. A                                                              
small producer  is considered  a company  producing less  than, or                                                              
equal to,  50,000 barrels per  day. The  refund is limited  to the                                                              
amount spent on  capital investments or on bids for  state oil and                                                              
gas  leases  within  24 months  after  applying  for  transferable                                                              
credit  certificate.  Criteria for  the  refunds  are as  follows:                                                              
Applicants  must  not have  unpaid  delinquent  production  taxes.                                                              
There is a limit  of 25 million per calendar year.   The amount in                                                              
total   available   for   refund   is   subject   to   legislative                                                              
appropriation.  Issuance of  transferable credits  does not  limit                                                              
the ability to audit.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
In  current  law  AS  43.55.023(i)  establishes  the  Transitional                                                              
Investment   Expenditure   (TIE)   credits.      These   are   not                                                              
transferable and can  only used once (cannot be  claimed under any                                                              
other section as  a credit). TIE credits are available  for 20% of                                                              
qualifying investments  (qualified capital expenditures)  that are                                                              
made  during the  5  years prior  to the  effective  date of  PPT,                                                              
April  1, 2006.  A credit  is limited  to 1/10  of producer's  new                                                              
investment for each year after.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:59:13 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked if Mr. Iverson  could comment on  what the                                                              
expectations  were  for  the  application   of  TIE  credits.  Mr.                                                              
Iverson deferred  to Cheryl Niehnuis.  CHERYL  NIEHNUIS, PETROLEUM                                                              
ECONOMIST,  TAX DIVISION,  DEPARTMENT OF  REVENUE, testified  that                                                              
the expectations  were approximately  $5 billion dollars  over the                                                              
5-year period.   Under  the TIE credits  $6.2 billion  was applied                                                              
for under TIE credits, a difference of $1.2 billion.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  about   the  projections  being  not  20                                                              
percent off but 100 percent off.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
3:01:26 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms Niehnuis  explained the  capital expenditures  were assumed  to                                                              
be $1 billion a  year when in fact they were $2  billion per year,                                                              
increasing the amount of applicable expenditures.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked if the  department recommended  removal of                                                              
the TIE credits.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
3:02:01 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  said the  department was in  support of  removing the                                                              
TIE credit.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson moved  on to  the AS  43.55.024 credits.  Of the  two                                                              
credits  the first is  an annual  $6 million  credit to  producers                                                              
operating  in areas other  than North  Slope or  Cook Inlet.   The                                                              
credit  expires  2016  or  the  ninth  calendar  year  post  first                                                              
commercial production.   The second credit is  for small producers                                                              
who  have an  average daily  production  less than,  or equal,  to                                                              
50,000 barrels a  day.  This is a $12 million  credit annually and                                                              
is phased  out when a producer  reaches 100,000 bpd.   The credits                                                              
are nontransferable and do not carry-forward.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
3:03:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He added  that the  credits are Pre-PPT  and transferable,  though                                                              
there  is  no provision  for  them  to  be refunded  in  PPT.  The                                                              
criteria  for the credits  are either  a 20  percent credit  or 40                                                              
percent credit  depending  on activity. The  credits are  targeted                                                              
toward exploration  activities.  He provided examples:  20 percent                                                              
allowable credit  for a well  drilled not  less than 3  miles away                                                              
from a  currently existing well,  another 20 percent  credit would                                                              
be for 25  miles away or more from  the boundary of the  unit.  If                                                              
it meets  both criteria then  the result  is a 40 percent  credit.                                                              
To  the extent  a  seismic shoot  is  made outside  production  or                                                              
exploration  unit  boundary,  the  cost  for the  shoot  are  also                                                              
available for  a 40% credit.   He explained there  are significant                                                              
information requirements  in AS 43.55.025.   There have  been some                                                              
suggested  revisions from  the department  based on  the need  for                                                              
DNR to obtain more information.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
3:05:18 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson addressed  the  changes proposed  in  the ACES  bill.                                                              
First the  loss carry-forward credits  are set in  PPT legislation                                                              
at 20  percent; SB2001 recommended  that the percentage  change to                                                              
match  the base  tax  rate  was 25  percent.   This  provided  the                                                              
opportunity  for  companies unable  to  apply a  deduction  (lease                                                              
expenditures) in  the year  incurred at the  rate that is  the tax                                                              
rate.  If  companies  are  not  able to  do  that  then  they  are                                                              
disadvantaged  by having  a lower  credit rate  in the  subsequent                                                              
year  for expenditures  they  would otherwise  be  able to  apply.                                                              
This allows  for the  same benefits  in subsequent  years for  new                                                              
entrants who have no tax liability in the previous year.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:06:51 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked how net operating losses are dealt with.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
3:07:06 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson said  there  is no  estimate  of  net operating  loss                                                              
carry-forward.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Niehnuis said  there are  forecasts, not  estimates. What  is                                                              
available is  information on the  true up return, which  is actual                                                              
data from  calendar year  2006.   Mr. Iverson  said the  amount is                                                              
approximately  $26 million.   He  clarified that  this is for  the                                                              
actual 9 months ending 12/31/06, subject to PPT.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked for more information.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Niehnuis  informed Senator  Stedman that  there are  estimates                                                              
available by  field, not  by company. There  are estimates  in the                                                              
model the  expectation of  loss carry forward  credits as  well as                                                              
other credits.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
3:08:50 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  wanted  to point out  that net  operating loss  carry                                                              
forward  of   $26  million  is   not  as  significant   an  amount                                                              
as the  regular capital expenditure  credits at $250  million. Mr.                                                              
Iverson  summarized that  an important  change in  SB 2001  is the                                                              
change of  the loss carry-forward rate  equal to the tax  rate. An                                                              
additional  change  is that  tax-exempt  entities  can not  obtain                                                              
transferable  credits   certificates  under  either   the  capital                                                              
expenditure section  or the exploration incentive  credit section.                                                              
He did point  out that if an  entity is tax exempt by  statute and                                                              
then  qualifies,   an  exploration,  production,   or  development                                                              
entity could apply for transferable or refundable credits.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:10:27 PM.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Iverson  reiterated   that  the   department  proposed   the                                                              
elimination  of  transitional investment  tax  credits  as it  was                                                              
felt   that   the   producers  are   being   rewarded   for   past                                                              
expenditures.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson outlined  another important  piece; linking  issuance                                                              
of  the credit  with  filing of  annual statements,  enabling  the                                                              
department  to   get  the  needed  information.     An  additional                                                              
provision that has  been an issue is the spread of  credits over 2                                                              
years.   He explained  that a credit  can be  use 50 percent  each                                                              
year.  Noting  there   had  been  debate  on  the   provision,  he                                                              
explained both sides.   The positive side is a  "revenue smoothing                                                              
effect".   Typically  credits are not allowed to  be used in their                                                              
entirety  in a single  year internationally.  The difficulty  with                                                              
the provision  is the reduction  in the  net present value  of the                                                              
credit due to it being extended out another year.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman asked what  the monetary  difference is  between                                                              
and annual filing, versus what is currently in statute.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Iverson  clarified   question  a   question  regarding   the                                                              
calculation of progressivity on monthly versus an annual basis.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Cheryl Niehnuis  said based on  historical information  the amount                                                              
is  a  minimum  of $18  million  depending  on  prices  and  other                                                              
variables.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman asked  what the  reason  was for  an annual  tax                                                              
basis.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  said the primary  reason was simplification  but also                                                              
the smoothing out of price fluctuations.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
3:14:01 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman asked  if progressivity  increased to  .4  as is                                                              
suggested in SB 2001(RES), would the $18 million double.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson said  that Senator Hoffman's observation  was accurate                                                              
in terms of noting an increase.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman recalled  discussions  from  a previous  meeting                                                              
debating a  monthly versus  annual filing.   The intention  behind                                                              
the monthly  filings was  to capture the  revenue when  there were                                                              
spikes in price.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  commented on  the timing  of capital  credit. He                                                              
noted  there  has  been some  interest  for  establishing  a  zero                                                              
credit in  the first  year, then  50/50 over  the next  two years.                                                              
The purpose  is to stabilize  the state's forecasting  ability. He                                                              
acknowledged  that there  is an added  cost with  the 50/50,  than                                                              
100% up  front. He requested  an estimate  of an opportunity  lost                                                              
vs. the gain  in the budgeting  process if the credits  were known                                                              
ahead  of time.  He wanted  to know  the impact  to the  treasury,                                                              
recognizing the  difference between a  calendar year and  a fiscal                                                              
year.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:16:21 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson  offered to  provide  further  information  regarding                                                              
Senator  Stedman's  comments.  Senator   Stedman  recognized  that                                                              
there was  a time-value impact  on the credit.  He thought  the 20                                                              
percent credit was substantial.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Iverson  related   that  SB  2001  also  proposed   clean  up                                                              
provisions  regarding  Cook  Inlet.   Regulations  were  put  into                                                              
place  that weren't  expressly  set  forth in  statute,  inserting                                                              
lease  expenditures  and credits  in  Cook Inlet  and  interfacing                                                              
with the Cook Inlet ceiling.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He  further   noted  AS  43.55.028,   which  establishes   a  fund                                                              
mechanism  to  facilitate  the credit  refunds.    Currently,  the                                                              
legislature  appropriates  funds for  credits  and the  department                                                              
then requests supplemental funds to handle the difference.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
The  proposed fund  is within  the  treasury and  would be  funded                                                              
with  a  percentage  of production  tax  revenue.  The  percentage                                                              
would be  between 15-20 percent depending  on the price  of oil on                                                              
the West  Coast.   The department  would use the  fund to  pay the                                                              
credits.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:19:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Elton asked who would manage the fund.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  said the fund  would be managed  by the  treasury and                                                              
receipts would  stay in the  fund to be  used in subsequent  years                                                              
to pay other credits.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked for an explanation of  seismic exploration                                                              
incentive credits.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  deferred to the  Department of Natural  Resources and                                                              
explained that  DNR was instrumental  in creating language  on the                                                              
exploration incentive credit program under the SB 80.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:20:43 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
KEVIN  GIBSON,   PETROLEUM  INVESTMENT   MANAGER,  ACTING   DEPUTY                                                              
DIRECTOR, DIVISION OF OIL & GAS,  DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES,                                                              
said he was available to answer questions.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  if  he  could  explain  the  exploration                                                              
incentive credits and their purpose.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Gibson said  exploration  incentive  credits  predate PPT  to                                                              
encourage  exploration.     The credits  are  a substantial  20-40                                                              
percent.   The seismic data  information submitted is  critical to                                                              
understanding    geotechnical   information,   which    determines                                                              
prospectivity  of various  state and  federal lands.   It is  also                                                              
valuable to  the state, who as  a working interest  owner, secures                                                              
the  ability  to  access  information and  make  it  public  after                                                              
confidentiality  expires.  This provides  value  in  terms of  the                                                              
state's long-term  exploration goals and hinges on  the ability to                                                              
encourage new explorers  to come in.  He explained  that as basins                                                              
mature and  larger players  pull out,  smaller companies  can come                                                              
in and have access to that information, which can defray costs.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
3:24:31 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas asked  for the maximum credit amount  that could be                                                              
received by a taxpayer.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Iverson  said it  is too early  to tell as  plans are  made in                                                              
advance  and PPT  has not  been in  effect  for long.  Exploration                                                              
incentive   credits,   from   inception   to   date,   have   been                                                              
approximately  $250  million  in  qualified  expenditures;  $23-25                                                              
million of that  in seismic. To date there has  been approximately                                                              
$53 million  in credits issued for  wells. He concluded  that over                                                              
time  there   had  been  some   substantial  activity   under  the                                                              
exploration   incentive  credit   program.  He   added  that   the                                                              
department  has heard  from companies  that the  credits are  very                                                              
valuable due  to the net present  value impact. He  clarified that                                                              
the CSSB 2001(RES)  version allows companies that  have investment                                                              
costs, but no production,  to have a two-year window  to apply for                                                              

Document Name Date/Time Subjects